November 2007 Edition

EDITOR'S CORNER

Gaze Into Your Crystal Ball

Life moves fast and technology seems to move even faster. As readers, what's your guess as to what the future holds?

I'm always amazed at the rate of technological change. Not so much future-shocked – believe me, I can take it, and in fact, look forward to it – as pleasantly astounded. But, what amazes me about the rate of change, young people now take for granted. An mp3 music player the size of a deck of cards is soooo, 20th Century. They aren't astounded at something the size of a stick of gum with more memory than a couple thousand IBM 360 computers from little more than 40 years ago.

Consider that horse-drawn transportation was the fastest means of moving for most of recorded history until the invention of the railroad. Even with trains available, local transportation was still the horse until Karl Benz came along as the acknowledged inventor of the automobile and Henry Ford made them a commodity. Into the 1940s it wasn't unusual to see horse-drawn milk wagons.

The next big jump in transportation was the invention of the airplane by the Wright Brothers in 1903. In less than 55 years, flight speeds went from that of a galloping horse to vehicles traveling at Mach 25. At the beginning of the 1900s, it was a struggle for an airplane to carry one man. Today's AirBus A380 is capable of carrying more than 850 people [no doubt packed like sardines].

Faster Than a Speeding Bullet

Information distribution has sped up as well. At one time the Pony Express was the fastest way to carry information. Yes, we're back to the horse. Then Samuel Morse's invention strung wires across the county and the telegraph put the speed of information transmission at about the speed of light, but that was only from point-to-point.

Today, the Internet, radio, and television distribute content as fast as it can be produced. A bus plunge in Bangalore, India makes the news in Bangor, Maine within minutes. In fact, the gaping maw of news distribution channels demands such constant content that what has become to be considered “news” has dropped down to such a granular level that kids falling off of bicycles will soon become front-page stories. Through the media, we now care about incidents of which we would not even have been aware a couple of decades ago. We're also presented with the hijinks of celebrities as if we're supposed to care.

The acceleration of technology has also affected the metalworking industry. Manual control of equipment has given way to computer-driven guidance of machines and tools. Where once tolerances depended on the skill of an operator, tolerances have gotten finer as machines have learned to control themselves.

That's not to say the skills of those in the metalworking field have gone away. No, indeed, they've just changed.

In my usual round-about way, that's what I'm writing about: the accelerated changes of technology in the metalworking field. Metals and alloys once thought exotic are now routinely machined in shops that once wouldn't have touched them.

As change progresses it invades and alters the way things are done. Who knows what the next big, or even small changes are on the horizon? I think you know.

Prognostications

I've got three big questions for those of you in the metalworking industry to answer:

1. What are the biggest and most important changes you, as readers, have seen during your careers?
2. On the obverse side of the coin, what kind of changes do you expect in the foreseeable future?
3. What would be your blue-sky guesses about the ultimate changes to the industry? Androidal robot machinists? Vocal programming with AIs? Nanotechnology?

You tell me.

I know there are both experts and amateurs out there who can make educated guesses about the future. I want to hear from you. Put on your Nostradamus hat, or maybe just your tin-foil cap, and send me your predictions about the near-term, the mid-term, and the far-out future of metalworking.

 

 

 

 

What do you think?
Will the information in this article increase efficiency or save time, money, or effort? Let us know by e-mail from our website at www.ModernApplicationsNews.com or e-mail the editor at pnofel@nelsonpub.com.